I was checking with an investment analyst whom I know and trust here in SA regarding the long term effects of the COVID lockdown as well as the long term status of the Rand Vs the US Dollar.
The feedback is interesting. I had been told, about 2 years ago, that the long term trend for the Rand is an average fall of 4% or 4.5% per annum against the US Dollar. So I wanted to check to see if this pace has picked up due to the COVID lockdown. Interestingly the analyst does not think the long term COVID lockdown will have any effect and that the economy will bounce back. Interestingly, the analyst confirms my suspicions that the US economy is constantly growing faster than the South African economy.
This was the reply:
There are no specific Covid-19 effects as the rand will still react primarily to underlying fundamentals and interest and inflation rates. Since our economic growth is lower than the US and our interest and inflation rates are still higher, the long term trend is still in place. (Events like Covid-19 tend to have a short / medium term effect only.