Money flooding out of South Africa
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The rand fell the most in two weeks against the dollar as a political rift between South Africa’s two main governing parties widened, adding to growing concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
The country has seen outflows from local asset markets despite offering investors higher yields than many peers.
That’s partly due to concerns that the government of national unity had spurred investor confidence, which won’t last, said Warrick Butler, the head of foreign exchange trading at Standard Bank Group.
The tension came to a head last week when the Democratic Alliance declared a dispute within the nation’s coalition government, days after President Cyril Ramaphosa assented to a new law that will make it easier for the state to expropriate land.
The party criticised Ramaphosa’s African National Congress for failing to adhere to procedures set out in a coalition deal agreed last year.
“The signing of the expropriation bill seems to have caught some of the partners by surprise, and the market dislikes uncertainty,” Butler said.
The rand fell 1.5% to 18.6678 per dollar as of 1:50 p.m. in Johannesburg, the worst performance out of 23 major emerging-market currencies monitored by Bloomberg.
According to Bloomberg data, foreign investors have sold a net R20.7 billion ($1.1 billion) of South African stocks since the start of the year.
Speculative accounts held the most short-rand contracts on a net basis since September 2023, according to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
The ANC’s support in national elections in May fell below 50% for the first time since 1994, forcing it into a coalition including the business-friendly DA.
That reassured investors, with the rand rallying to a 13-month high before giving up some of the gains after Trump’s election victory in November.
The rand rallied again after last week’s inauguration as investors concluded that Trump’s tariff threats are more bark than bite — but this weekend’s spat with Colombia upended those bets.
The US president threatened tariffs against Columbia to wrest an agreement on returning migrants, raising concerns he may use the same strategy to target other nations.
The US is South Africa’s second-biggest trading partner and the rand is often seen as a proxy for risk appetite in emerging markets.
The rand’s decline Monday “to a great extent reflects the swings in response to Trump’s latest rhetoric,” said Henrik Gullberg, a macro strategist at Coex Partners.
“Anything that threatens the promising structural narrative in South Africa is not good news.”
Source: https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/808956/money-flooding-out-of-south-africa/
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