2008: When Zimbabwe came close to real CIVIL WAR: The MDC’s first Military Victories – Self-Defense Weapons needed VERY URGENTLY

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Original Post Date: 2008-04-27 Time: 00:00:00 Posted By: Jan

[The Zimbabwean Civil War may have begun. But, if action is not taken soon, it could become the biggest genocide in Zimbabwe’s history – exceeding the 30,000 that Mugabe murdered in the 1980s.

Firstly, I am utterly delighted that a few of the MDC areas (only a handful so far), were able to organise their own self-defence units. Back on 21 April 2008, I discussed the possibility of them defending themselves against genocide using sticks, stone and their bare hands since they really have bugger all to fight with. See: Can Zimbabweans defend themselves from Genocide II using sticks, stones & spears?

I am so delighted to see that some of them have already organised themselves and have been able to successfully defend themselves against murder. Rest assured the Youth Militia (Green Bombers), “War Veterans” and Military personnel did not go to those areas to drink a cup of tea with the MDC.

The news reports state that the Militia were not alone and that there were War Veterans and Military personnel present. The Military Personnel are a key to the whole structure. Even during the so-called “Land Invasions by the people”, the Military Personnel were the ones bringing them in on trucks and the Military Personnel (officers), knew the orders and issued the orders and told them which targets (farms) to attack. The presence of Military Personnel (probably including Army Officers), is proof that these attacks by the Youth Militia are CO-ORDINATED MILITARY OPERATIONS. This is actually Mugabe’s real army. This has been Mugabe’s “Secret Army” (Many months ago we discussed a similar concept with regard to South Africa about the concept of a “Secret Army” of a million criminals).

We have discussed in the past how in modern Southern Africa an army does not have to be composed only of men in uniforms with rifles. Due to lack of money, logistics issues, etc, they can raise huge “armies” of people armed with nothing but sticks and stones. Essentially, we’re looking at warfare as fought in the Stone Age, and it is mixed in with some modern military control and transport structures. This is a unique type of warfare, and therefore, one needs to think of tactics, strategies and approaches to dealing with it.

So firstly, I’d like to congratulate those MDC areas where some very brave boys and men have dared to take on Mugabe’s hideous forces with their bare hands. They need medals!! They have proven what I have said for a long time is theoretically possible – that the Green Bomber bastards CAN BE DEFEATED. It is a way of trying to break Mugabe’s hold on the country to free up those areas.

So firstly, the MDC should congratulate its followers and especially those very brave people who dared to take on these scum backed by the Army itself. These are the MDC’s first BATTLE FIELD VICTORIES FOLKS! Did you ever imagine this to be possible? I must tell you, I never thought I’d live to see the day, and I can’t tell you how proud we all should feel that these people dared to take on the most hideous monster in the world.

THEIR LIVES ARE IN ABSOLUTELY GRAVE DANGER NOW… AS ARE THE LIVES OF ALL MDC SUPPORTERS IN THOSE AREAS NOW. GRAVE DANGER FOLKS. Those people could be dead and torn apart within the space of days and weeks if they do not get help soon.

Firstly, a bit of history:
Back in 2000 when Mugabe’s scum invaded the White farms there were one or two farms where the Black Farm workers had decided to drive the invaders off because the land invasions threatened their livelihood. On one or two farms, the Black Farm workers took on Mugabe’s scum and thrashed them – like those Green Bombers were thrashed in the report below.

So what did Mugabe do? From then onwards, Mugabe ensured that SOLDIERS IN CIVILIAN CLOTHING, ARMED WITH AK47’S ACCOMPANIED ALL LAND INVADERS. These soldiers, posing as “land invaders”, were there to shoot to kill anyone who resisted them. And thus, ALL RESISTANCE WAS BROKEN AND ALL THE REMAINING FARMS WERE OCCUPIED.

This is what is going to happen right now, and Mugabe is already handing out weapons to the War Veterans and Militia. Another Mugabe victory must be prevented at all costs.

Now before you throw your hands up in despair, let me explain to you the good and bad of this, and why this is not necessarily bad – AS LONG AS THERE IS AN URGENT RESPONSE TO ARM THE MDC SUPPORTERS FOR THE NEXT COUNTER ATTACK WHILE BUILDING UP MDC Self-Defence Units across the country.

All the odds actually still favour the MDC – all the way. The MDC is in reality in a great position to take Mugabe on. Except they don’t have arms – yet. Let me give you some thoughts on how the MDC can still bog Mugabe down and BREAK HIS ACTUAL CONTROL OF THE COUNTRY.

My Liberal friend, who was a Commandant in Military Intelligence in South Africa up to 1985, was discussing with me this last week an idea he had. Even though the MDC’s main support has always traditionally been in the urban centres, my friend said the MDC should get its supporters – especially those without jobs (in that country unemployment is 80% anyway) and move them. My friend suggested that the MDC supporters should go into the rural areas where they can get away from Mugabe and where they can bolster the numbers of people there. He in fact suggested that these additional people should also help to form and bolster self-defence units. The more the merrier… to give them even greater numbers.

Despite the MDC hating Mugabe and existing in overwhelming numbers in the urban areas, Mugabe has firm control of these areas by way of the Army and Police who are too heavily armed and professional to be challenged (at the moment).

So the rural areas are the best places to hide and fight. REMEMBER – LOGISTICS is going to be Mugabe’s biggest problem. So if they can get into the bush then it means Mugabe needs to transport their attackers there (which costs money and wastes fuel which he can ill afford). Any fighting which takes place – will require ammunition – which Mugabe can also ill afford. Zimbabwe is big – about 3/4 the size of France – and its infrastructure is not good – so people who are hidden away in the remote recesses of the bush will have a big advantage.

But it gets better. Mugabe has lost so much support now that I estimate his actual support must be a fraction of his “official” (crooked) election results of 42%. Given the many PRE-ELECTION TRICKS he tried, his real support is probably closer to 20%, and maybe even lower. Perhaps his support could be as low as 10%.

What this means is that in any given area, the MDC will have the masses on their side. This means that it should be pretty easy for them to recruit spies and look-outs (mujibas) who watch for the approach of Mugabe’s forces. It also means that Mugabe cannot control the rural areas all the time – which is absolutely crucial. He can only control those areas where he can mass large enough forces to attack, kill and terrorise people. But eventually he must withdraw his forces from these areas. (Mugabe may choose to poison the water or to find ways of just murdering the people or later, perhaps even using gases and WMDs on them – but we will discuss these possibilities later). He is severely hampered by his lack of cash – which I have predicted for years. The imploding economy has severely dented his ability to make war. This now works to his opposition’s advantage.

In this election Mugabe has even convincingly lost control of a lot of rural areas – which now can really work to the MDC’s advantage in terms of putting up a fight from the bush.

Because Mugabe’s forces are now outnumbered, despite all his training for years now of the Youth Militia, he is in a position where, no matter where he chooses to do battle, his opposition OUTNUMBER HIM. Assuming all things remain equal, if his Militia are unarmed and the MDC are unarmed, the MDC should be able to thrash his forces in each and every engagement. So how can Mugabe now win?

He is now forced to start arming even his Militia and War Veterans with already SCARCE MILITARY WEAPONS AND AMMUNITION. Even though the latest Chinese shipment of weapons was 77 tons… which included 2 million rounds of AK47 ammunition and 1 million machinegun rounds (we will ignore the mortar and rockets for now), that will not be sufficient to fight a whole war. If they were to face some stiff and clever resistance, they will need new supplies!

So in order for Mugabe to offset his severe numerical disadvantage he will need to train and arm his Militia and War Vets MORE HEAVILY. This comes at a cost, and it includes time and money and logistics issues – ALL OF WHICH WILL WEIGH ON HIM – AND WILL STRAIN HIM TO BREAKING POINT SOONER.

The real problem facing the few MDC units in existence now are the COUNTER-ATTACKS BY THE NEWLY ARMED MILITIA. We can go, within days, from Civil War to Genocide II if they are unable to defend themselves. I repeat: Mugabe will arm his units and send them back with orders to murder with gay abandon in those areas where his forces were defeated. They will come back WITH A BLOODY VENGEANCE WORSE THAN BEFORE.

So those particular areas need URGENT DEFENCE AND BEEFING UP OF THEIR DEFENCES OR ELSE THERE WILL BE A ONE-SIDED BLOOD BATH.

The KEY, folks, is for the MDC to break the Militia. The Militia are the key reason Mugabe controls the whole country.

The good news is that even if the Militia are armed – IT COMES AT A TREMENDOUS COST TO MUGABE. DOES HE EVEN HAVE THE MONEY AND MEANS TO ARM ALL THE MILITIA? I am convinced NOT! At best, he can only arm some of the militia. Note, they are probably not familiar with proper military rifles and so will need training. Thus, even if they are trained they will be much less effective than the Army or the Police.

So here is the numbers game they face, and this numbers game works in favour of the MDC in a big way. THE CRUCIAL TRICK… IS TO FREE HUGE PARTS OF ZIMBABWE FROM MUGABE’S STATE TERROR MACHINE… AND IT IS DOABLE… QUITE QUICKLY. It will ultimately save lives and save people from murder, torture and the many hideous terrors that those evil little Militia scum bring with them.

Let me suggest some possible solutions. I will still publish my Anjouan island wargame which I ran not long ago with the equations and the military model developed by Colonel Du Puy who was the Pentagon’s top analyst on War casualties. In the light of the recent AU invasion of Anjouan, I ran a wargame which covered 8 days of fighting on Anjouan pitting very heavily armed infantry against much more lightly armed rebel opponents. I reached an interesting conclusion out of that exercise, which could be of help to the Zimbabweans. It has to do with weapons ratios.

Remember that even if Mugabe arms a lot of his militia, he cannot arm them all, and they also do not have an unlimited supply of ammunition. So even if they are fully armed, they will have to have guidelines that limit the amount of ammunition they can fire. Plus, not being professional soldiers, they will shoot worse than the army and they will waste more ammunition while causing less casualties. So even having an armed militia as one’s enemy… one is not completely doomed.

The problem is how do you fight them?

I would suspect that what Mugabe might do, for example, is to arm one out of every X number of Militia and War Vets. Suppose for example, Mugabe dishes out 10,000 AKs. He might have to dish them out to 30,000 Militia. So only 1 in 3 will have a rifle. (I suspect and am hoping that the ratio is even much less).

Mugabe received 2 million rounds of rifle ammo. A quick calculation reveals that if he kept 1 million in reserve for his Army and Police and then released 1 million rounds for the War Vets and Militia, we find an interesting situation: Assume he hands out 10,000 rifles, that means Mugabe can only give them 100 rounds of ammo each – about 3 magazines per person. If an AK is badly handled or one fool puts it on automatic, he could blow and waste 30 rounds in no time at all. These guys aren’t marksmen like in the Boer war where a man could go into battle with 10 rounds of ammunition and act like a sniper. My point is that 100 rounds of ammo are not that much. A trained soldier in combat in Africa I seem to recall goes into battle with about 200 rounds each.

What it means is that at least 2/3rds of the Militia will still have to fight with their hands.

What can the MDC do?

I don’t think the MDC needs to actually match their opposition exactly. With less weapons, or the clever use of them, they could still smack Mugabe’s forces.

Here are some possibilities:-
1. Given the low standard of training of the forces being engaged, I would strongly suggest arming them with SHOTGUNS! Given the kind of fighting in the bush, I would think the fighting will be pretty close up, so even someone with a shotgun with a handful of rounds could perhaps be much more effective than someone with a military rifle. A shotgun with even 5-10 rounds might even do better than a rifle with 100 rounds. (One family member of mine who fought in the bush war preceding Mugabe’s rise to power – not my brother – actually swore that he preferred a shotgun). I think given the nature of the combat, lack of skills and the chance of some close confrontations (as well as lying in wait for an attacking enemy), really would give shotguns a real chance.

2. If Mugabe arms 1 in 3 or 1 in 6 or even 1 in 10 Militia, the MDC could perhaps get away with arming only 1 in 10 or 1 in 15 of their own forces. Remember the defender has an advantage in battle. It will not give them victory, but it will allow them to PREVENT BEING COMPLETELY OVERRUN. It would give them just enough fire-power to completely blunt the enemy attack. It would give people time to FLEE while they fight a rearguard action. It would prevent genocide. IT WOULD SEVERELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MUGABE’S MILITIA. IT WOULD PREVENT THEM FROM PHYSICALLY MAKING CONTACT WITH AND MURDERING OR TORTURING PEOPLE AS THEY WOULD HAVE TO AVOID THEIR OWN CASUALTIES. So even if very small proportions of MDC self-defence forces were armed (even 1 in 20), it would take them a long way from being as completely helpless as before – especially if they have a human early-warning system.

3. The MDC could try to make up for quantity with quality. Perhaps, in an area they could form a platoon-sized unit which is properly armed, and which sits in reserve. If an attack is imminent, the SDUs (Self-Defence Units), go into action fighting delaying and rearguard actions while people flee into the bush, while a call is issued to a (QRF) “Quick Reaction Force” which races to the area under attack. The QRF could then launch a concerted counter-attack with proper military weapons to beat off the attack and to inflict proper losses on Mugabe’s forces. Such a force would need proper military training and would need proper weaponry. (In the process they might also capture some weaponry).

In my view, if the MDC SDU’s could get some semblance of rifle/shotgun weaponry then it will have one major effect: It will bring to an end the Militia’s ability TO ROAM THE COUNTRY AT WILL AND TO INTIMIDATE OR MURDER ANYONE THEY PLEASE. The minute, even small amounts of armed resistance come into play, it COMPLETELY NEGATES THE COMPLETE MONOPOLY WHICH THE MILITIA HAVE HAD FOR YEARS. They were cheap to operate. They could operate far and wide with the only cost being fuel and transport. The moment rifles and ammunition come into play, even in a very small way, it curtains about 80% of their effectiveness. Even if they are armed and backed up by heavier forces – the bottom line will be: THE DAYS OF THE REIGN OF STATE TERROR BY THE MILITIA WILL COME TO AN END.

IF THAT IS ACHIEVED… IT WILL BE THE FIRST MASSIVE STRATEGIC MILITARY DEFEAT THAT MUGABE HAS EVER SUFFERED. The results of this will be massive.

There are reports that many lower-level troops are unhappy with Mugabe. If some of these see the chance to defect it will be excellent. Their knowledge of tactics and internal procedures will be useful.

NB: NB: NB: Under no conditions should anyone trust any statement that top-ranking officers are defecting. This should be treated with extreme suspicion. I will not discuss my reasoning why.

Thanks to the bravery and organisation of those guys who beat off those attacks, I think, that what is needed now, WITH EXTREME URGENCY… IS SOME SORT OF MILITARY WEAPONS TO BACK UP THOSE WHO FOUGHT OFF THE ATTACKS WITH THEIR BARE HANDS.

I WANT TO URGE AMERICANS ESPECIALLY TO FORWARD THIS TO THEIR CONGRESSMEN, THE CIA, THE US MILITARY, ETC. EVERYONE ELSE, FORWARD THIS REQUEST TO ANY OFFICIALS IN ANY WESTERN COUNTRY YOU ARE FAMILIAR WITH. IF SOME OF THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT ARMED SOON THEY ONLY HAVE DAYS LEFT TO LIVE.

Don’t let these early victories turn into UTTER TRAGEDY.

I feel that if the majority of weapons were shotguns, that the nett battlefield effect will be good. Perhaps a ratio of 2-3 shotguns to each AK47 could turn out to be worthwhile.

Later Mugabe will have to up the ante to using RPG7s and mortars and handgrenades… but these weapons will be expensive for him and will limit his ability even more. Normal firearms will be perfect for the job of countering the vast majority of his forces.

Hand to hand combat can still take place. For example, if you have groups of say, 20 people armed with sticks and “attached” to their unit is one man with a rifle or shotgun… then they should be far better able to deal Mugabe’s forces than if none of them have any military weapons at all.

With rifles and shotguns alone, much of Zimbabwe could be freed from this reign of State Terror and Genocide – quicker than you think.

The first Grand Strategic aim must be to break Mugabe’s ability to terrorise and murder the length and breadth of the country. If this can be achieved (and it can be done in a matter of weeks), a fabulous victory will have been won.

Look at the news report below which absolutely delighted me. I am so sick of seeing the defenceless being tortured and murdered.

What thereafter? It becomes a numbers game. Mugabe will have to arm more and more of his forces with heavier and heavier weapons. Given his economic catastrophe, it will become ever more difficult for him. Even now, he has such limited resources that for years he had to rely on the Militia murdering people with their bare hands. That is why, just a bit of organisation, a bit of training and small amounts of firearms can totally turn the tide.

How do the weapons get there? I am quite convinced that the means exist for getting the weapons into the country and to distribute them.

The numbers game will go like this: If Mugabe arms 1 in 10, later he will have to arm 1 in 5, and 1 in 3, etc. But the MDC has the edge. If the MDC can get “Liberated areas” where they can base themselves and organise themselves then they can smuggle in weaponry and train people. Then they too can train and arm, 1 in 20, 1 in 10, etc. Their numbers will give them the edge.

Plus, their morale will be higher than that of Mugabe’s forces who must already be shocked by their losses. The more the MDC resists the more defections there will be on Mugabe’s side. I have no doubt that some firm PHYSICAL RESISTANCE WILL CAUSE A MASSIVE COLLAPSE OF MORAL ON MUGABE’S SIDE AND DEFECTIONS WILL START OCCURING THICK AND FAST… Especially when the following message is spread around by word of mouth: “Defect from Mugabe now, or we will slit your throat when we win…”

The Military organisation, training and arming of the MDC AT A RAPID PACE IS NEEDED NOW. The Chinese ship’s 77 tons of weapons and munitions are being flown to Zimbabwe as I write this. Expect the counter-attacks SOON! Let us hope that Genocide II can be staved off. Jan]

Is Zim on the brink of civil war?

April 27 2008 at 10:59AM
By Fred Kockott, Chiara Carter and Peta Thornycroft

Zimbabwe could soon be in the throes of a civil war. It has emerged that supporters of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who have been victims of attacks from armed militia and law enforcement agencies, have begun to retaliate.

Human Rights Watch in Zimbabwe said that, for the first time, it had documented several incidents of violence by supporters of the MDC. But it said the scope of those incidents was incomparable to those perpetrated by the state security agents and Zanu-PF militia.

Human Rights Watch warned that the emergence of “tit-for-tat retaliatory attacks” between Zanu-PF and MDC supporters would escalate the violence.

‘Anyone opposing Mugabe is in danger’
A report in The Zimbabwean on Friday said army barracks across the country were now issuing war veterans and former military and police officers with AK-47 assault rifles.

“The official line is that they need to protect themselves against anticipated attacks by the MDC and its foreign supporters, particularly on former white-owned farms. But the real intention is to use the weapons against opposition supporters in the rural areas,” the report said.

“MDC supporters in Masvingo and Mashonaland East provinces have organised themselves into local defence units to fight back violence and intimidation by war veterans, military personnel and Zanu-PF militia.”

On Thursday, there were “fierce battles” in the village of Makaha in Mashonaland East as MDC supporters repelled an attack by Zanu-PF.

“Reports are still coming in but indications are that Zanu militiamen were badly mauled,” The Zimbabwean reported.

On Friday, Zimbabwean police raided the MDC headquarters in Harare, Harvest House, which had become a refuge for opposition supporters. They arrested 300 people in the biggest crackdown on the MDC since last month’s elections.

The raids came hours before the first results of the recount were published.

The results show that Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party has failed to secure control of parliament, handing the ruling party its first defeat in 28 years.

Results of a parallel presidential poll have not been released and Mugabe has been preparing for a run-off against Morgan Tsvangirai, the MDC leader. Tsvangirai says he won outright and his party has rejected both the recount and any run-off.

Mukoni Ratshitanga, the spokesperson for President Thabo Mbeki, said, as far he was he aware, no plans had been made by the South African government or the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to deploy any teams of human rights observers and peace monitors.

“As a mediator, the president is constantly in touch with the political leadership in Zimbabwe – of both parties,” Ratshitanga said. “The situation is being addressed. There is confidence that a solution can be found,” he said.

But Georgette Gagnon, the director of Human Rights Watch Africa, said the SADC mediation process had now decisively failed and urged that the African Union step in urgently “to protect civilians and resolve this crisis before it gets any worse”.

She said: “Anyone opposing Mugabe is in danger.”

Cosatu on Saturday described the Zimbabwe election crisis as an “abortion of democracy in Africa”, and called for civil action worldwide to end the rule of the “illegal Zanu-PF regime”.

“War has been declared on unarmed citizens. People are being assaulted, homes burned and people killed. This is all state sponsored,” said Zwelinzima Vavi, the Cosatu general secretary.

“We need to send out a clear, decisive message that this regime cannot be tolerated in Africa.

“They have staged a coup d’etat – refused to play the game according to the rules and assembled in defiance of what people voted on March 29,” said Vavi.

He warned that continued failure of African and regional leaders to ensure that a new government of Zimbabwe was constituted, as elected through the polls, could see the crisis unfold “into another major genocide, right under our noses”.

Vavi called on not only workers and labour movements worldwide, but also on all governments, institutions, civil society and individuals “to make it clear that this illegal regime in Zimbabwe will not be tolerated in Africa”.

Vavi agreed with Gagnon, and said that, instead of facing isolation for subverting the electoral process and orchestrating violence, invitations were being extended to the likes of Patrick Chinamasa, the former justice minister, and other Zanu-PF leaders to African Union and SADC summits, such as this week’s conference on poverty in Mauritius.

“Look at Chinamasa, parading as a Zimbabwe government minister, attending SADC meetings, being quoted in the media as a minister – yet he lost his parliamentary seats in the elections, as did three quarters of other senior Zanu-PF leaders,” said Vavi.

Jacob Zuma, the ANC president, described Zimbabwe as a “police state”. This was after Zimbabwe riot police raided offices of opposition organisations on Friday, including the Harare headquarters of the MDC.

Police reportedly smashed their way through groups of injured refugees, then beat their way upstairs into the MDC’s main offices to arrest hundreds of its officials and confiscate computers and the party’s election materials.

Human Rights Watch said there was also “grave concern” about 500 people, including more than 100 children, believed to be sheltering in the MDC’s regional headquarters in Mutare. It said Mutare’s country club has been turned into an “informal torture centre” by militia.

This article was originally published on page 1 of Sunday Independent on April 27, 2008

Source: http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=3045&art_id=vn20080427095819336C755285

Source: https://archive.africancrisis.info/?p=25979

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