Money is leaving South Africa: This is where SA’s money is going

South Africa’s institutional investors are increasingly turning to foreign equities amid a challenging South African environment.

Following his research into offshore investors, RMB Chief Economist Isaah Mhlanga said that there have been some notable shifts in the behaviour of local investors over the last three decades.

Allocation to cash increased from 8.4% in the 1990s to a peak of 9.3% in the 2000s before declining to 5.2% in the 2020s.

Domestic fixed income dropped from 28.8% in the 1990s and 2000s to 24.7% in 2010, with a marginal increase to 26.2% in the 2020s. Foreign fixed income has remained between 0.4% and 0.6% over the entire period.

The big changes are seen on the equities side, with domestic equities dropping from 45.6% in the 1990s to 35.2% in the 2020s, while foreign equities increased from 5% to 22.5% over the same period.

“There are several drivers for this observed asset allocation behaviour. First, domestic fixed income continues to offer relatively attractive real returns compared to offshore fixed income,” Mhlanga said

“Second, domestic equities tend to get dragged by poor growth fundamentals.”

The domestic listed equity market has also shrunk substantially compared to other regions and has become too concentrated.

Why this is happening

Although the global economic momentum continues to moderate from the post-pandemic recovery, the US economy has been resilient, buoyed by consumer spending.

Technology has driven US equities, but this appears to be waiting as the broad S&P 500 has dropped by 10% from its 31 July 2022 speak despite the strong growth narrative.

“Monetary policy has continued to tighten, although it is now at or close to the peak in many countries. Global central banks have continued to unwind pandemic-era liquidity, particularly the US Fed, driving up returns from money market funds, which have attracted significant capital,” Mhlanga added.

“Geopolitics have also added another return driver and layer of complexity to the energy and agricultural complex. One of the 2022 trades was buying energy and soft commodities and sitting back and watching the Russia-Ukraine war. The Hamas-Israel war might resuscitate the energy leg of that trade.”

For emerging markets, weakening currencies, growing debt levels and better US returns in money market funds are driving nonresident investors away – even if US fixed-income yields are now expected to drop.

In South Africa, high inflation, weak growth and Regulation 28 – which increased the amount that could be invested in international assets from 30% to 45% – have driven the market dynamics.

With local dynamics being so weak, offshore fixed income is anticipated to benefit.

“The shift in global sentiment towards US long-dated fixed income combined with a decline in the S&P 500 will likely continue the overweight offshore fixed income call,” Mhlanga added.

“For offshore investors, long duration is starting to pick up, which will encourage more outflows from EMs that have fiscal risks, such as South Africa. In the equity markets, US equity markets, excluding technology, have been underweight. This is likely to remain the case for some time as markets assess recession risks.”

“In the domestic market, equities broadly remain underweight, but there are pockets of value in the small-caps and mid-caps.”

Source: https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/728158/this-is-where-south-africas-money-is-going/

jlamprecht