Charts & Statistics: IMPORTANT: Secession in South Africa: A Growing Topic: Cape Independence – My Comments
We commissioned Victory Research to conduct a poll to determine the current level of support for Cape independence. Here we share some key insights in graphic format. A more detailed summary showing the main questions we asked, and how people responded, with their responses grouped by political affiliation and race group, is available in PDF format in the Downloads section towards the bottom of this page. You can also find the Press Release we sent to local media below.
About the Poll
Date: Last week of July and early August 2020
Sample Size: 802
The sample was fully representative and comprised only adults residing in the Western Cape, over the age of 18
Margin of Error: 3.5% at a confidence level of 95% [4% if you cater for the Survey Design Effect]
Survey Design: The poll was conducted telephonically, using a single frame, random digit-dialling sampling design
1 in 2 WC citizens want a referendum on independence
2 out of 3 DA voters want at referendum on independence
This is clearly not a "fringe" movement
DA Voters Already Over The Line
The DA is at the heart of independence movement, whether they like it or not
Their voters have put them there by emphatically endorsing conversation about independence
Majority of DA voters want the Western Cape to secede and become an independent country
65% of all independence supporters are DA voters
Supported By All Races
Independence has substantial support among all races
Claim that independence is a white project is emphatically refuted – only 28% of independence supporters are white
Coloured voters make up the majority of independence supporters
Good governance, security and non-racialism are the main reasons why people want independence
Quality Of Life
Majority of those expressing an opinion believe their quality of life would improve with independence
All 3 race groups strongly believed provinces should be given more power
All 3 race groups strongly believed South Africa is going in wrong direction
Party or Province
Understood by all that the Western Cape and South Africa urgently need solutions to their problems. The DA is asking Western Cape voters to believe they have a solution to save all of South Africa. Are they doing so because this best serves the interests of Western Cape citizens, or to serve DA political ambitions? Compare support for independence in the Western Cape, against support for the DA in the rest of South Africa. The DA has often accused the ANC of placing party before state. Is the DA now placing party before province by avoiding an open discussion on Cape independence?
We’ll need a 2nd poll to see a trend but this gives you an idea of support levels needed and where we are now.
The poll has shown beyond all doubt that there is widespread popular support for Cape Independence. It has placed the Democratic Alliance (DA), the current provincial government of the Western Cape, front and centre in the independence debate by virtue of the majority of its own voters views. It has dismissed the notion that an independent Cape is an idea favoured by any one race group.
The Western Cape cannot afford to do nothing, whilst the ANC government drags it ever closer to economic and social collapse. The fastest growing party in South Africa, the EFF, would be infinitely worse. The Western Cape has firmly rejected the values both of these parties stand for, but we are being governed by them anyway because of our relationship with South Africa.
We elected the DA to lead our province, and now we need them to put the people of the Western Cape first. The CIAG has repeatedly challenged the DA to explain why a relationship with South Africa is in the best interests of the people of the Western Cape. To date they have been unable or unwilling to provide an answer. The poll results makes an answer to this question urgent and essential.
Interviews Related to Polling Results
The Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) is a single issue political pressure group whose goal is to promote the idea of the Western Cape peacefully and democratically breaking away from the Republic of South Africa and forming an independent sovereign state – the Cape of Good Hope.
The CIAG commissioned Gareth van Onselen’s Victory Research to conduct an opinion poll to establish the current level of support for the concept of an independent Western Cape. The poll was conducted at the end of July 2020. An authenticating statement from Victory Research, which includes the methodology, is attached.
The polling confirmed that there is widespread support for the concept of independence, with more than 1 in 3 Cape citizens (36%) saying they support Cape Independence and almost 1 in 2 (47%) supporting a referendum on the issue. This is despite the fact that, to date, no major political party has openly come out in support of independence. It also emphatically disproves the claim advanced by many politicians that the lack of electoral support for the Cape Party equates to a lack of support for independence – a claim the independence movement has always disputed.
To the contrary, the poll substantiates the claim the CIAG has always made – that the majority of independence supporters vote for the Democratic Alliance (DA). 65% of all independence supporters in the poll support the DA.
The poll goes much further than that, showing that the majority of DA (53%), Good Party (63%), and Freedom Front Plus supporters (89%) all want an independent Cape.
The myth that Cape independence is a white movement has also been emphatically refuted. The poll showed that 71% of independence supporters were either coloured or black.
A more detailed summary of the polling results is attached as a pdf document, and the results show a logical progression with Cape citizens feeling overwhelmingly negative about South Africa’s trajectory (73%) and in general agreement that the province needs to be given more power to govern itself (68%). Thereafter, as stated above, 47% support a referendum on independence, and 36% already want independence. 53% of those expressing an opinion, believed their quality of life would improve in an independent Western Cape.
The poll also investigated the reasons why people supported independence. Improved governance and escaping ANC misrule were the most popular reasons, followed by better security and policing, and an end to racially discriminatory laws. Of all the options provided, respondents believing their race would have more dominance in an independent Cape came in dead last.
The next steps for the CIAG will be to increase pressure on the DA to openly and honestly engage with the provincial electorate on the subject of independence, given the high levels of support in general, and especially within their own voter base. This will be done via behind the scenes lobbying, a continuation of the current media discussions, and the campaign moving beyond social media and onto the streets.
The DA has been quick to accuse the ANC of putting party before state, they must now decide if they intend to put party before province. The 2021 municipal elections are looming and there will be at least three other political parties openly campaigning for independence. These are the Freedom Front Plus, The Cape Coloured Congress and the Cape Party. The poll indicated that the DA would likely lose their provincial majority if they directly opposed independence, whilst talk by the DA of national coalition politics as an alternative solution for the people of the Cape rings rather hollow given their recent track record in that regard.